There is 60-80% chance that the new improved heat shield will fully work.

There is a 50% chance of a successful catch of the booster on this flight.

The challenge will be to successfully catch the Starship.

SpaceX will want three successful flights of the Starship where the heat shield works perfectly and they are able to steer it to the precise location. After three such successes then SpaceX will try to catch the orbital Starship. They want to make sure that there is very small change of any failure of Starship over the launch tower and landing site.