Zelensky claimed on Friday that Russia's long-awaited offensive had finally begun following its fresh push into Kharkov Region from which it tactically pulled back in September 2022. This precedes him likely clinging to power on legally dubious pretexts once his term expires on 21 May and aligns with the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee's prediction of political-military troubles heading into his summer.

Here are the five objectives that Russia arguably aims to achieve in view of the conflict's larger context:

1. Create The Conditions For Russia To Control The Entirety Of Its New Regions

Russia's increasingly frequent gains in Donbass over the past month speak to how serious Ukraine's conscription and logistical crises have become, thus enabling Moscow to push them to the breaking point by opening up a new front at this precise moment in time. This is meant to facilitate a military breakthrough for expelling Ukrainian forces from the entirety of Russia's new regions, with any collapse of the front lines consequently paving the way for achieving additional military-political goals.

2. Coerce Ukraine Into Demilitarizing All Of Its Rump Regions East Of The Dnieper

Russia is unlikely to make territorial claims to Ukraine's rump regions east of the Dnieper due to the high cost of sustainably securing, rebuilding, and integrating them, which is why it'll probably instead demand their demilitarization as a buffer zone in exchange for letting Kiev retain political control. Any areas that it captures throughout the course of this reportedly launched campaign could be handed back upon that happening in a variation of the alleged compromises contained in spring 2022's draft treaty.