The Super Heavy booster returned most of the way but lost control before a soft landing attempt. The Starship was lost after about 49 minutes when it tried to re-enter but burned up with some lost heat shield.

It is clear that over 5-9 more launches in 2024, that SpaceX will be mastering the launch and landing of Super Heavy and Starship. I think SpaceX will be able to return the booster for a soft water landing on the next attempt and 80% chance of returning the Starship for soft water landing.

If SpaceX is able to match the flightplan then there will be no delays for investigations. If they plan to land in the water and they land in the water then there will be no investigations. No investigations will means the next launch attempt would be in a month instead of 2-3 month where investigations are needed.

The safe return to the launch tower will likely happen on the 3rd or 4th attempt this year.

SpaceX currently only has authorization for 5 more launch attempts this year. Brett Bellmore asked the FAA:

SpaceX applied to modify its existing vehicle operator license for the Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle from its Cameron County, TX site. After completing an evaluation of all applicable Vehicle Operator License requirements, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a modification to the Vehicle Operator License for SpaceX launches of the Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle Program in Cameron County, TX on March 13, 2024. The modification authorizes the third flight of Starship/Super Heavy.