I cannot remember the first time that we discussed the transition from "Made in China" to "Made by China." I do know that back in April 2023 we Locked in Some Themes, one of which was the Made by China theme. We also framed the discussion around the dollar, the yuan, and "reserve currency" status using the "Dark Web" as a useful way to think about it. Some reports age better than others, and that report seems to have aged particularly well.

"Made by China" has been a theme that we have been using more and more. We are also starting to see it referenced more frequently. Not usually in those exact words (which we are trying to coin for ourselves) but the concept is the same – stiffer competition from Chinese goods makers.

While in Chicago this week, we were able to discuss this in more detail on the Schwab Network in a segment they titled "Potential China Strategic Shifts." It also came up in a Yahoo Finance interview that focused more on my bearish outlook for U.S. equities, but it did get incorporated. It may also have come up during a discussion with Rick Santelli at CNBC on Friday afternoon, but there isn't a link available, and the interview and prep was such a blur that I cannot remember what was said on versus off-air. Well, I know a few things that were definitely not said on air, but that's another story! In any case, I should have brought more than one tie to Chicago.

Marching in Plain Sight

General (ret.) Spider Marks, who spent much of his career in Asia as a senior intelligence officer, often discusses how China does things "in plain sight." They tell us what they are going to do, and then they do it, and somehow we often seem surprised. I won't harp on this theme, but it will permeate the report.

I'm seeing references to China's "Minsky Moment" on social media. The concept that China is somehow going to lay down and die, give up decades of growth, and succumb to an aging population and a falling real estate market seems almost ludicrous. Yet, that view seems to be far closer to the consensus than Made by China, despite lots of evidence that communist leaders rarely go down without leaving it all on the field.