The GEOFOR editorial board asked Paul Craig Roberts, Chairman of the Institute for Political Economy (USA), a PhD in Economics and US Undersecretary of Treasury in the Reagan administration, to give his assessment of the prospects for confrontation between Israel and Hamas, the likelihood of war between the United States and Iran, as well as the future of BRICS and the constitutional crisis in the US.

GEOFOR: In your publications you point to the need for a mutual defense treaty between Russia, China and Iran. What practical benefits do you see from such an alliance? The possibility of preventing a U.S. strike on Iran, either directly or with the help of Israel? And how realistic do you see the trilateral alliance in the current environment? Especially since Beijing has for decades avoided making such a commitment.

Paul Craig Roberts: The conflict between Israel and Hamas has already widened to Israel vs. Hamas and Hezbollah, to the US/UK vs. Houthis, and now with the attack on a US base in Jordan to the prospect of a US attack on Iran or on Iranian officials. We will be very lucky to escape a US attack on Iran. Israel, which has extraordinary influence on US policy in the Middle East, has been pushing Washington for many years to attack Iran. Such an attack has the support of the majority of the US Congress and is fervently desired by Israel's neoconservative allies, such as Victoria Nuland, who hold powerful positions in the US government. It would require a miracle for a US attack on Iran not to start a major war from which Russia and China could not stand aside.

My conclusion is that proactive action is necessary to prevent an attack on Iran that would likely ignite a major world confrontation. A mutual defense treaty announced by Russia, China, and Iran would prevent an attack on Iran. The US, Israel, and NATO do not have the capability of fighting a war against three powerful countries. Without such an alliance, the determination of Israel and Israel's neoconservative allies in Washington to expand Israel's borders by removing Iran's financial and military support for Hezbollah and the Houthis will result in a strike on Iran. It is what everyone in Washington wants, except the US military, but the decision will not be made by the military.