Between 2024 and 2026, an estimated $900-billion worth of Canadian mortgages – almost 60 per cent of all outstanding mortgages at chartered banks – are due to renew and could face a sharp increase in payments, according to a report released this week by Darko Mihelic, an analyst who covers the banking sector for RBC Capital Markets. Those payment increases range from a weighted average of 32 per cent next year to 48 per cent in 2026.

The focus of the report is the impact the payment shocks will have on the retail operations at Canada's big banks, but the economic fallout is obvious if the current interest rate environment persists.