-Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start

-Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden's economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.