Update (13:15 ET): What was largely a theoretical modeling exercise until moments ago, is set to go live because Reuters reports that the EU is set to declare a full embargo on Russian oil after this weekend's French election:

EU GAS PRICE TO SHOOT UP AS EU TO DECLARE EMBARGO ON RUSSIAN OIL AFTER FRENCH ELECTION NEXT WEEK – SOURCE

Why wait until after the election to launch the embargo? Simple: Europe's bureaucrats are correctly terrified that the coming oil price spike to push the vote in Le Pen's favor, which is why Europe will wait until after the election (when Macron will supposedly be the next president of France, as Belgium hopes) to announce it publicly.

Despite the clear intentions of western government to cripple Russian energy production, loadings of Russian oil have so far been surprisingly resilient, so much so that Russia's current account balance is at all time highs.

According to JPMorgan, shipments in the seven days to April 16 hit 7.3 mbd, only 330 kbd below the 7.58 mbd averaged in
February before the start of the war. Remarkably, JPM calculates that Russian crude exports are averaging 360 kbd above pre-invasion volumes, while exports of oil products like fuel oil, naphtha, and VGO have declined by 700 kbd (full report available to pro subscribers in the usual place).