The diplomatic fumble with the mineral rights is particularly painful for Mr. Biden because his economic and climate agenda relies heavily on rare earth minerals to transform the power and transportation markets and rebuild the nation's semiconductor industry.

The Taliban's overthrow of the Afghan government gave the Islamist militants control of huge mineral deposits that are critical to batteries for electric cars, cellphones and other high-tech consumer goods.

"We are going to be fighting for scraps because we are sitting around debating and thinking about what to do," said Chris J. Dolan, a politics and global studies professor at Lebanon Valley College. "The U.S. has all these conditions and caveats, but the Chinese don't care if the Taliban is respecting human rights whereas the U.S. has."

Ceding Afghanistan to the Chinese, even on this one issue, would be a disaster, he said.

"It's going to hurt us because the next generation — especially in terms of advanced computers and technology — is going to have to be a lot more reliant on China. That would be the ultimate disaster," Mr. Dolan said.

A 2010 Department of Defense report priced Afghanistan's untapped mineral wealth — which includes copper, iron, gold and lithium — at roughly $1 trillion. In 2019, an Afghan government official estimated the value as high as $3 trillion.