Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

A few years ago, as U.S. shale oil production soared towards 11 and then 12 million bpd, turning the country into the world's largest oil producer, it was fashionable to start imagining that OPEC was becoming irrelevant. It took a pandemic to refute that argument; and now, OPEC is more relevant than ever. Yes, the cartel is riddled with internal rifts and disagreements, with much speculation about a breakup. And it's fair enough to consider what the world would look like without OPEC.

The short answer is, of course, that it would look quite different. With no oil cartel to control prices, every country with oil reserves would be free to exploit them at will, pumping to the maximum to take advantage of any opportunity to grow their market share—something that some OPEC members would very much like to be doing right now but cannot because of cartel obligations.