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IPFS News Link • China

China Three Child Policy Too Little Too Late

• https://www.nextbigfuture.com, by Brian Wang

Above is a chart (from the UN Family Planning Administration) of how many have three or more children in other countries. China has fallen into the low fertility country level. Like Japan or Spain, China might have 10-16% of women willing to have a third child. If China had started this policy back when they had medium-fertility a third child policy might have had 30-40% of women willing to have a third child.

Very low fertility does not reflect very low family size preferences. Women across Europe and other highly developed regions persistently express a strong preference for having two children; the mean ideal and intended family size stays at or above two children per woman. Countries with very low fertility often display a wide gap between fertility aspirations at younger ages and achieved fertility later in life, signaling that many women, men and couples face obstacles in realizing their fertility plans.

Under the new dual-earner model, rigid and demanding labor market, characterized by long working hours and limited work flexibility, negatively affects parenthood decisions. This is especially the case in East Asian countries and territories (Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong SAR, and Taiwan Province of China), where long work hours, particularly among men, clash with extensive responsibilities mothers shoulder in relation to their children's education and upbringing.

China's birthrate is now less than half of the level from 1978-1900.


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