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IPFS News Link • Gold and Silver

COMEX Gold Into Summer

• https://www.zerohedge.com by Craig Hemke

So I guess that, first of all, we should start with the link to that post from April 13. The price of COMEX gold had clearly double-bottomed at the expected support level of $1680. However, price had only recovered about $60 at that point and many "experts" were calling for even deeper lows in the weeks ahead. I strongly disagreed with that for reasons explained in this post:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Gold-Suddenly-Gets-Real-ly-Interesting-Craig-Hemke-April-13-2021

In short, the March CPI had jumped to +2.60% and, with 10-year treasury note rates at 1.65%, the inflation-adjusted or "real" interest rate had suddenly fallen to -0.95%. This was noteworthy because the last time real rates were near -1.00% was August of 2020. And what was COMEX gold trading at then? All times highs near $2100.

This created an obvious market inefficiency that would soon be exploited and corrected. What you've seen in the five weeks since is a closing of this gap.

However, real interest rates have only gotten more deeply negative, too, as the April CPI that was released last week showed an annualized inflation rate of +4.2%. With the yield on the 10-year note still at 1.65%, this places the inflation-adjusted return at -2.55%! Awareness of this is slowly seeping into the general investment world, but it seems that many are still enchanted by Chairman Powell's "transitory" nonsense.


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