Ark Invest is forecasting that EV car batteries will drop in price by 28% for every doubling of EV cars produced. Ark forecasts that a suitable electric vehicle will drop from about $30000 now to $18000 in 2025. Tesla will likely start producing a $25000 EV in 2022-2023. This will likely be a slightly more econo-box version than the Model 3. A lot of the $1500 a year cost reduction will come from the lowering of battery costs. The learning curve from producing more electric cars will also reduce the cost of other components and factory process and design improvements will also reduce costs.

It will take 20-30 years to achieve a more mature EV cost structure. Larger EV battery packs will drop from $10000 to about $2000. A 300 mile range EV could cost $12000 in 2030 and $8000 in 2040.