And as before, the key factors driving the belligerence are not outraged Iraqi militia leaders or their allies in Iran, but Trump's secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long sought to draw the US into a military confrontation with Iran.

Throughout the fall of 2019, Netanyahu ordered a series of Israeli strikes against Iranian allies in Iraq and against Lebanese Hezbollah units. He and Pompeo hoped the attacks would provoke a reaction from their targets that could provide a tripwire outright war with Iran. As could have been expected, corporate US media missed the story, perhaps because it failed to reinforce the universally accepted narrative of a hyper-aggressive Iran emboldened by Trump's failure to "deter" it following Iran's shoot-down of a U.S. drone in June, and an alleged Iranian attack on Saudi oil facility in September.

Pompeo and John Bolton set the stage for the tripwire strategy in May 2019 with a statement by national security adviser John Bolton citing "troubling and escalatory indications and warnings," implying an Iranian threat without providing concrete details. That vague language echoed a previous vow by Bolton that "any attack" by Iran or "proxy" forces "on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force."

Then came a campaign of leaks to major news outlet suggesting that Iran was planning attacks on US military personnel. The day after Bolton's statement, the Wall Street Journal reported that unnamed US officials cited "US intelligence" showing that Iran "drew up plans to target US forces in Iraq and possibly Syria, to orchestrate attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb strait near Yemen through proxies and in the Persian Gulf with its own armed drones…."