A dismal ISM print followed by an even worse construction spending data has sparked a renewed hope that things are just shitty enough to force The Fed to cut cut cut more than Powell would like to admit.

As Bloomberg's Cameron Crise exclaims, this is kind of crazy price action given the messaging from Powell yesterday, and you have to wonder what's driving it.

A sense of policy error from the Fed? Perhaps there's an element of that, as breakevens have dropped sharply today. Distressed buying from someone trading because they have to, not because they want to? Maybe. These sorts of crazy, counter-fundamental moves often have a rationale in that sort of flow. Thus far, the dollar isn't buying what the rates market appears to see.