The headlines are all about yesterday's "extraordinary" bear-rally in stocks – upside buoyed by expectations the US/China trade discussions will de-escalate trade war tensions. I'm unconvinced by the narrative: the volume was tiny and a look at the charts suggests global stocks have still got problems ahead.

And, the trade talks are not a done deal - I'm not so sure Trump's poker game versus the Chinese will playout as positively as he expects. What happens if the Chinese say No and stop buying Treasuries? Yesterday's US 2-yr auction gave us a near 2.31% yield – the highest level since the Global Financial Crisis (and this US funding round is the largest ever!), and primary dealers were left very long. 10-yr is still bouncing around 2.85% - but the US has $1 trillion to raise this year and the Fed is tightening, while the dollar is looking tarnished. Credit spreads continue to look soft. It all feels a little like a pre-quarter end holiday market – which it is!