Having taken a political stance in the pre-referendum debate, there can be little doubt the post-referendum fall in sterling was considerably greater than if he had kept on the side-lines.

This article takes to task the Treasury's estimates of the effect of Brexit on the British economy and Mr Carney's role in the affair, then assesses the actual consequences.

The Treasury's economic weapons of mass destruction

One of the Treasury's models predicted Brexit would cost each household £4,300 every year. There were at least two things wrong with this prediction. Firstly, it was presented as if it was a loss of net income, in other words the business profit or wages the average household would lose. The estimate was nothing of the sort, it was the Treasury's estimate of the loss of annual GDP divided by the number of households in the event of Brexit.

A second wrong should be equally obvious. No economic model is capable of predicting an outcome without subjective inputs. This is why garbage in produces garbage out. One can even goal-seek specific answers by feeding assumptions into an economic model. One suspects this was the principal basis of what the press dubbed "Project Fear". There were in fact two Treasury models, the first one described above, which is meant to predict the medium to long-term outlook, and a second which predicted an immediate recession in the event of Vote Leave. This is the Treasury's VAR model, which uses statistical analysis to measure and quantify the level of financial risk. The simple assumption, with no basis in evidence, was that Brexit would amount to an economic shock half as great as the 2008 financial crisis, lasting for two years.