Late last year we discussed one of the world's most marginal mid-sized gold mining companies, South Africa-based Harmony Gold (HMY) (see "Marginal Gold Producer Takes Off" for details). We did so for two reasons: first of all, the stock has a well-established seasonal pattern – it tends to rally strongly from roughly November/December to January/February.

Secondly, this pattern is not merely a statistical artifact, but it actually supported by a clearly discernible fundamental driver – namely, this is the quarter during which the group traditionally posts the strongest results of the year. Thirdly, recent fundamental improvements (stronger than expected earnings and guidance) and a breakout in the Rand gold price to new highs seemed especially supportive this year.

Gold in Rand, weekly. This is a rather bullish looking chart at this stage – click to enlarge