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How The Stage Is Being Set For America's Next Financial Crisis
• https://www.zerohedge.com, BY PORTFOLIO ARMORIn our last post (Maybe the Biden Administration is Damaging The Dollar Intentionally), we included a chart showing Chinese dumping of Treasuries.
British economist Philip Pilkington uses that chart as a jumping off point for the disturbing X thread below. He points out a key difference in Chinese ownership of U.S. Treasuries now:
It used to be that these bonds were bought by China and other governments/central banks. These were stable buyers because it was part of their trade strategy - prop up the US trade deficit to sell more exports. Now increasingly they are bought by private foreign investors.
Unlike central banks, these private investors are rate-sensitive. Unlike during 2008, when Treasuries rallied as a haven trade, Pilkington warns that the next time we have a recession in the U.S., and the Fed cuts rates significantly, these Chinese private investors are going to dump their Treasuries.
And that could lead to a decline in American living standards of about 27%.
1/ Here is a thread on why recent record sales by the Chinese of US Treasuries might be one of the first signs of a major fiscal crisis in the US. There is a lot of confusion about how this would work so let's go through it step by step. pic.twitter.com/K2bBdLd4TS
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024