On the basis of new monthly estimates based on reports of some of the clinics in its database, Guttmacher is now estimating that there were 1,026,690 abortions in the United States in 2023, the first full year after Dobbs.  This is more than a 10% increase over Guttmacher's last formal estimate of 930,160 for 2020, but still substantially lower than its all time peak of more than 1.6 million in 1990, when the nation's population was considerably lower.

The frequency of abortion is also up, according to Guttmacher, reaching 15.7 abortions per thousand women of reproductive age (ages 15-44), itself a 9% jump over the 14.4 recorded by Guttmacher in 2020. The last time the abortion rate was this high was in 2012, when it was 16.1, although it had reached as high as 29.3 per thousand in 1980 and 1981.

In a separate report, Guttmacher says that chemical abortions now account for 63% of all abortions performed in the U.S., approaching two thirds.  The increased prevalence of chemical abortions, particularly via telemedicine, is one of the possible reasons Guttmacher gives for the reported increase.

A certain level of uncertainty in the numbers

There is reason to be skeptical of the precision of Guttmacher's latest numbers, but it may well be that the trends are in that direction.

Unlike previous Guttmacher surveys, these are based on selected samples of "providers" rather than full national surveys of all known clinics. This is why the monthly estimates in their new data set are expressed in ranges (e.g., November of 2023 is said with 90% certainty to be somewhere between 79,300 and 82,300; the median estimate used for counting is 80,700).

While this new method allows Guttmacher to estimate more quickly based on data from "providers" with whom they have had regular contact for a number of years, it may skew the data towards more active, aggressive members of their trade. These are ones who are most likely to capitalize on post-Dobbs trends by advertising services in neighboring states, working with abortion funds to handle women traveling from pro-life states, managing high volume abortion mega-clinics or utilizing marketing novelties such as mobile abortion clinics operating just across state lines.