On February 27 I was interviewed by Finian Cunningham about this risk.  If the interview is posted online, I will link to it hopefully before it is taken down by the narrative controllers.

There is no doubt that I have been proven correct that the provocations, accepted by the Kremlin with only words in opposition, have increased in severity over the past two years.

First the West would send to the Ukrainians helmets and sleeping bags.  Then small arms ammunition. Then artillery.  Tanks were mentioned, but Washington and NATO said, "never tanks." Then tanks were sent. Then, after first being denied, drones and intermediate-range missiles. Then targeting information. Then mercenaries.  Then after being denied, now long-range missiles and US F-16s capable of penetrating deep into Russia herself far from the battlefront are under consideration.  And now the latest, the French President's proposal to send NATO troops.  "We will never send troops," declares NATO's Stoltenberg. But all the denials previously were breached and meant nothing.