The headline economic figures for the United States look robust. However, details show concerning weaknesses.

Real GDP growth surged to 4.9% in the third quarter, above the consensus estimate of 4.5%. However, some analysts, including Bloomberg, expected up to 5% growth based on the nowcast estimates.

United States unemployment is also low, at 3.8%, but real wage growth remains negative, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Between September 2022 and the same month of 2023, the decrease in real average weekly earnings was 0.1%. This means that a tight labor market is not improving the real disposable income of workers. Additionally, the labor participation rate and employment-to-population ratio remain below pre-pandemic levels. Add rising taxes to inflation, eating away at wage growth, and you can see why things are more complicated than what headlines suggest.