The S&P500 was down 1.26%, gold climbed $7/ounce, the Swiss Franc performed well, USDJPY hovers threateningly below the 150 level and most soft commodities sold off. Bonds, crude oil and coffee managed to buck the trend. US 10y yields were down 7bps as markets walked back from the ledge of the 5% psychological level and who can blame anyone for putting a bid under coffee? They must be going through plenty of it in the White House Situation Room (more on that below).

The flow of data on Friday contrasted European weakness with a Japanese economy gathering steam. UK retail sales ex auto fuel was down 1% in September. The Office of National Statistics blamed unseasonably warm weather for households delaying purchase of their winter woollies. This analysis may be taking British preoccupations with the weather to new heights; the volume of retail turnover has been trending down since May 2021 and the household goods category was also very weak in September.