The key driver: voter rejection of Bidenomics. 

According to a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll, Trump is up four points among voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. On a state-by-state breakdown, Trump has the upper hand in five of them. He's tied with Biden in Michigan, while Biden leads in Nevada by 3.  

In 2020, Biden received the electoral votes of all of those states except for North Carolina, which Trump won by 1.3%. If all other states stayed in their 2020 columns, Trump would need to take four of the seven swing states to return to the White House.  

Swing-state voters say the economy outweighs any other factor in their voting decisions, and they're hugely disappointed in the Biden-era economy. 49% say Biden policies have been bad for the economy, compared to 26% who see them as a positive.  

"Almost twice as many voters in the swing states are saying that Bidenomics is bad for the economy, as opposed to good for the economy, which is a really startling fact if you're the Biden campaign," said Morning Consult pollster and vice president Caroline Bye. Bye couldn't help but reveal her own bias, declaring, "Biden is not getting any credit for work he's done on the economy." 

It's not just the economy that's dragging Biden down; swing-state voters have higher confidence in Trump in 10 out of 16 policy areas. Only where "climate change" is concerned does Biden outperform Trump by more than 10 points. Interestingly, they give a solid edge to Trump on "guns."