Global Outrage At Gaza Hospital Strike

After news broke of an air strike against Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, Muslims protested and rioted in multiple countries amid reports that the Israel Defense Forces had bombed the hospital.

Did The IDF Bomb The Hospital?

By 4pm New York time yesterday, 70% of bettors on the Manifold prediction market believed that to be the case. By 5am Wednesday, the percentage of bettors believing the IDF bombed the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza had dropped to just 7%. 

Why The 90% Drop In Bets That The IDF Bombed It?

One of the main reasons seems to be dawn in Gaza, shedding light on the parking lot where the weapon hit. The lack of a large impact crater, and the limited damage radius, appears to suggest the weapon was not a bomb, as the thread by Nathan Ruser below explains. Ruser also offers evidence that the casualty numbers claimed by Gaza officials seem high relative to the structural damage visible and past truck bombings.