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Dollar Tree Tumble: Mounting 'Shrink' Erodes Margins, Forecasts Fall Short Of Estimates

• https://www.zerohedge.com by Tyler Durden

Margins deteriorated in the quarter on rising "shrink," or inventory loss due to shoplifting or employee theft. Also, guidance missed the average analyst estimates. 

The discount store chain recorded a net income of $200.4 million and diluted EPS was $0.91 for the quarter, beating the average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg by several cents. However, this was down from $359.9 million, or $1.61 a share, in the quarter one year ago. 

Here's a snapshot of second-quarter earnings: 

Adjusted EPS 91c, estimate 87c

EPS 91c vs. $1.60 y/y

Net sales $7.32 billion, +8.2% y/y, estimate $7.21 billion 

Dollar Tree net sales $3.87 billion, +8.5% y/y, estimate $3.77 billion 

Family Dollar net sales $3.45 billion, +7.9% y/y, estimate $3.44 billion 

Gross profit margin 29.2% vs. 31.4% y/y, estimate 29.7% 

Dollar Tree gross margin 33.4% vs. 37.4% y/y, estimate 34.8%

Total location count 16,476, +1.5% y/y, estimate 16,506 

Dollar Tree Locations 8,177, +0.9% y/y, estimate 8,244

Family Dollar locations 8,299, +2.1% y/y, estimate 8,276

However, the third-quarter earnings forecast missed average analyst estimates: 

Sees EPS 94c to $1.04, estimate $1.29 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees net sales $7.3 billion to $7.5 billion, estimate $7.33 billion


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