Just a few weeks ago, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while economic growth has slowed, "our labor market continues to be quite strong — I don't expect a recession." Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said staff economists at the central bank now project a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year, "But given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession."

In fact, with much stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth and continued labor market strength, a growing number of people in the mainstream now think the US has escaped the clutches of a recession despite the Fed driving interest rates to the highest level in 16 years.

Perhaps the optimism is premature.  And maybe we shouldn't put too much stock in the current official government numbers.