The next day I was drinking a £7 pint at my local, I looked at my phone and was assailed by financial commentators and substack writers with news that inflation was cured, and even deflation and rate cuts were looming on the horizon. Deflation you say? No one had told the drinking establishments I frequent. UK inflation index might be saying slowing inflation. But prices have not actually fallen.

I suspect the deflation camp is looking at the period in 2013 to 2020, when food CPI stagnated after the steep rise from 2006 to 2012, and thinking that we are headed for a similar period of falling prices. UK food inflation has an upward bias, but periods of accelerated inflation occur when underlying commodity prices rise, and deflation when commodity prices are falling. We can look at the CRB Food Index to get an idea of trends there. I am struggling to see deflation.