By Michael Every of Rabobank

"Johnny's in his room, building a bomb," are words spoken by no responsible parent, not even if they reassure, "Bomb-making is hard, so he won't be able to do it right." Yet global markets are watching as wires, fuses, solder, and the goods needed to make TNT are all assembled. Consider that the last few days have seen:

-More supply destruction from OPEC+ pushing oil up, which the White House claims it knew about in advance, and which was apparently driven by its refusal to rebuild its Strategic Petroleum Reserve at lower prices, as pledged;

-A Russian national security doctrine for long-lasting "hybrid war" vs. the US and Europe;

-More articles on Chinese and US war preparations, or lack of, as Graham Allison of 'The Thucydides Trap' claims "American politics is driving towards a provocation that China could not avoid," and that we are sliding into a catastrophic new conflict;

-G-Captain ask 'Is COSCO China's Secret Invasion Fleet?' and note 'US Congress Moves To Ban Chinese Crane Software' – so more politicized maritime logistics, and even Deeper Ship;

-The EU call for de-risking supply chains vis-à-vis China, and China warn them not to;

-Singapore's PM call for new ground rules so global trade can continue without decoupling, but with expectations the playing field will be much less flat, and that "we may end up on one side of the gulf or on the other. And that's just the way the world is going to be.";

-The Financial Times' Gillian Tett say, 'Prepare for a multipolar currency world', noting the CEPR view that: "the renminbi can play a more important role in the future, even in the absence of full financial liberalisation. This process would involve trade invoicing and settlements, central bank swap lines, and offshore renminbi markets. This would not lead to the renminbi overtaking the dollar, but rather to a multipolar world of key currencies, including the dollar, euro, and renminbi."; and

India and Malaysia agreed to settle trade in INR.