Home Price Synopsis

Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up.

Case-Shiller data lags. The latest data is from November and that represents sales primarily made in August, September, and October so the declines shown are undoubtedly understated by a lot, depending on the market.

Declines will accelerate but not fast enough to revive a housing market that has soured dramatically.

CS National ,Top 10 Metro, CPI, OER Index Levels

Chart Notes

OER stands for Owner's Equivalent Rent. It it the price one would pay to rent a home, unfurnished and without utilities.

Home prices wildly disconnected from the CPI in 2000 and in 2013. The disconnect accelerated in 2020.

The Fed ignored all three occasions hoping to make up for "lack of inflation". The Fed "succeeded" in producing inflation beyond it's wildest dreams.