"There isn't a rainbow at the end of all this. There's no reason that this difficult economic period will only last two to three quarters and no reason to think we'll have a soft landing or a shallow recession."

Before you dismiss his opinion as hyperbole, Saba Capital was one of the world's top-performing hedge funds in 2020 and is up by almost a third in 2022.

Before we go further with our analysis, we must distinguish between a cyclical and secular market cycle.

"A secular market trend is a long-term trend which lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets."