Are the months ahead going to be very painful for our economy?  This is something that I have been arguing for a long time, and apparently the vast majority of corporate CEOs now agree with me.  Of course economic conditions are not exactly good at this moment.  Core U.S. inflation just rose to a 40 year high, mortgage rates just hit the highest level in more than two decades, home values are plummeting all over the nation, and retail sales in the United States unexpectedly fell in September.  If you think that the U.S. economy is performing well right now, there is a very large bridge on the west coast that I would like to sell you.  Unfortunately, it appears that economic conditions are about to get significantly worse.  In fact, one recent survey found that 98 percent of corporate CEOs are planning "for a U.S. recession over the next year or year and a half"…

Nearly all CEOs are readying for the U.S. economy to fall into a recession, according to a survey released Thursday by The Conference Board.

The survey, The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, found that 98% of CEOs indicated they were preparing for a U.S. recession over the next year or year and a half. That figure is five percentage points higher than in the third-quarter survey.

Talk about a consensus.

But why is the number only 98 percent?

What are the other 2 percent thinking?

This week we also learned that a model created by Bloomberg economists is now forecasting a 100 percent chance of a recession within the next 12 months…

A U.S. recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden's economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.