As the DB strategist notes, over the last few months Fed expectations have generally risen with this number and markets have consistently sold off. However there have been a few strong counter-trend rallies on either the perception of a coming Fed pivot or on hopes of being near peak inflation. All have so far been ultimately reversed but the potential for Thursday to dominate the next few weeks of trading is high. Before we delve into some of the details, US PPI and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), and the UoM inflation expectations and US retail sales (Friday) are the other key events Stateside. It's Columbus Day in the US today with bond markets shut but equities open. It should be quiet but Fed VC Brainard is speaking later today to keep us on our toes. Finally in the US, results from key banks will kick off the earnings season later in the week before the deluge over the subsequent 2-3 weeks.

Elsewhere across the globe, we will also get inflation and trade data from China (Friday) and the PPI for Japan (Thursday). In Europe, the UK will be in the spotlight with an array of economic indicators due, including labor market data (tomorrow) and monthly GDP (Wednesday). After the dramatic aftermath of the UK mini-budget, there will also be some focus on Italy's draft budget that is supposed to be submitted to the EC by Saturday. Clearly any signs of it being too expansionary could be a red rag to markets increasingly concerned about debt sustainability in pockets of the DM world with yields this high.

A quick early preview of the US CPI number now. Our economists highlight that with gas prices down another near 7% from August to September, energy will again drag on the headline CPI print (+0.28% forecast vs. +0.12% previously). However, core CPI (+0.44% vs. +0.57%) will draw the most focus especially given last month's upside surprise. Assuming their forecasts are correct, year-over-year headline CPI should continue to decline, falling two-tenths to 8.1%, while core should tick up two-tenth to peak at 6.5%. This is in line with consensus. Whether one number should be the basis for huge swings in markets, it seems inevitable that a notable miss on core on either side could bring about big moves in trading over the coming weeks so stand by.