"When the [credit] delusion breaks, people all with one impulse hoard their money, banks all with one impulse hoard credit, and debt becomes debt again, as it always was. Credit is ruined."
– Garet Garrett, 1932, A Bubble that Broke the World
Down, Down, Down
The third quarter 2022 ended Friday. We're entering the year's home stretch. Thus, we'll take a moment to observe where money and markets have been, so we can conjecture as to where they're going.
To begin, United States stock markets are in an epic battle between bulls and bears. For most of the year, the bears have been delivering heavy blows. But the bulls have not taken their punches lying down. Here's a quick review of the three major U.S. Indexes…
After peaking out on January 4, 2022, at 4,814.62 the S&P 500 declined 24.46 percent to an interim bottom of 3,636.87 on June 17, 2022. The DJIA fell approximately 19.71 percent over this time.
The NASDAQ's decline commenced on November 22, 2021, at a peak of 16,212.23. It then cascaded to an interim bottom of 10,565.14 on June 16, 2022, for a top to bottom decline of 34.83 percent.
The indexes then rallied into mid-August. Many investors thought the bear market was over. They invested accordingly. But, alas, it was merely a sucker's rally. September was ugly.