The British pound is expected to plunge to a historically low level versus the U.S. dollar in the fourth quarter of this year, when the energy and gas crisis in the UK will worsen, according to strategists at the private banking unit of UBS Group.

UBS has reduced its outlook for the British pound to $1.15 in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from a previous estimate of $1.26 per pound sterling.

If UBS's target turns out right about its $1.15 call, the GBP will have slumped to the levels seen in the early days of the pandemic and the second-lowest level ever, after the low from 1985, according to Bloomberg's estimates.

Most analysts expect a relatively stable pound at around $1.22 through the end of the year, but UBS believes that the Bank of England's interest rate hikes will not support the UK currency for long with the looming crisis in the winter when UK energy bills will surge again.