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IPFS News Link • Housing

Why the Housing Bubble Bust Is Baked In


Rationalizations abound as bubbles inflate, and the continued ascent of speculative bets seems to "prove" the rationalizations are correct.

But bubbles arise from speculative excesses, and once these reach extremes and reverse, bubbles burst and all the self-serving rationalizations are revealed as rationalizations.

Let's start with some caveats I've already covered in Is Housing a Bubble That's About to Crash? (May 2, 2022):

1. Housing is local, so there may be locales where prices are still rising due to unquenchable demand and low supply and other places where demand is low and supply ample where prices plummet.

2. The wealthiest 1% on a global scale is a very large number, and wealthy buyers seeking a safe haven in North America come with cash and don't care about mortgage rates. Desirable enclaves could see home prices climb even as the national bubble pops. (World population: 7.8 billion X 1% = 78,000.000 or roughly 30,000,000 households.)

3. Wealthy investors are holding a large number of dwellings off the market as investments. These empty units consequentially reduce the supply in desirable locales, and create an artificial scarcity that would not exist if central banks hadn't inflated the Everything Bubble.

4. The number of homes bought by corporations has soared. This has driven demand in many markets, but if rents dive due to recession, corporate buyers become corporate sellers.

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