We were granted the greatest scientific experiment COVID-19 could offer (except for the cruise ships, which provided the original scientific experiment and was ignored). Many states had (and have) wildly different policies during the pandemic. The question we need to ask and data we need to study is, if the tight restrictions worked, did they result in fewer COVID-19 and moreover total excess deaths? 

Comparing one state to another, cherry-picking low-impacted Vermont to high-impacted Mississippi is dumb; they are unlike one another in geography and demographics, and importantly, obesity. Those two states are as far apart in COVID-19 death ranking as they are in obesity ranking. Mississippi is first right now in COVID-19 deaths per capita and has the highest obesity in the country. Vermont is ranked 50th in COVID-19 deaths per capita and 46th in obesity. Correlated? 

Below are the highest and lowest states in COVID-19 deaths per capita and their obesity ranking.

Do you see a correlation? New Jersey was hit hard early on and many fell victim to healthcare providers learning to treat COVID-19 patients and their nursing home policy. Arizona is an outlier, in part buoyed by foreign nationals sick with COVID-19 and dying in Arizona hospitals (similar results were seen in Texas and southern California). All the lower impacted COVID-19 states are low in obesity. (Is anyone surprised Alaska is not one of the lowest obesity states?)

The least restricted states throughout the pandemic include (no cherry picking here, these are the least) include the Dakotas, Florida, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Not one of those states are in the top fifteen in COVID-19 deaths per capita.