According to an analysis by Deutsche Bank's Jiefu Luo, long-term inflation expectations are starting to show signs of a break from the post-2013 low inflation regime.

As the DB chart below shows, breakevens pricing is currently consistent with the Michigan survey inflation skew, a proxy for inflation risk premium. Historically, the degree of divergence in inflation outlook drives market pricing of tail risks and therefore inflation risk premium. The skew, which is defined as the difference between 75th percentile and 25th percentile response in expected price change during the next 5-10y question, captures this effect quite well.