After a surge in new home sales and tumble in existing home sales, today's pending home sales print is the tie-breaker for whether the housing bubble has peaked on the back of un-affordability and rising mortgage rates. After a 10.6% plunged in February (weather-related), analysts expected pending home sales to rebound 4.4% MoM in March, but were disappointed by a mere 1.9% rebound (and a downward revision to -11.5% MoM in February)...

Of course, thanks to the comps from last March's collapse, the year-over-year surge of 25.3% is a little misleading (biggest YoY since March 2010).

So the new home sales surge looks like a big outlier for now...