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IPFS News Link • Employment & Jobs

Surprise: The BLS Admits Another Phony Jobs Report

•, Mish

The BLS Employment Report for May shows employment rose by 2.5 million and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%

Initial Reaction

Both numbers are way better than the consensus. 

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus jobs estimate was -7.725 million and the unemployment rate consensus was -19.8%. 

My unemployment rate estimate was -18.5%. I did not estimate jobs, fearing another fiasco like this.

BLS Admits Another Error

In the household survey, individuals are classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force based on their answers to a series of questions about their activities during the survey reference week (May 10th through May 16th). Workers who indicate they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expect to be recalled to their jobs should be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.

In  May, a large number of persons were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff.