"Threescore barrels, laid below. To prove old England's overthrow.."

Tonight the UK celebrates a plot in 1605 to blow up the King and Parliament.  If only… most porridge readers are probably thinking.  We now associate the Gunpowder plot with Guy Fawkes –   a hired mercenary. The leaders of the plot were a small group of disenfranchised Catholic minor aristocracy who saw it as their duty to overthrow the new Protestant Stewart (and Scottish) Monarchy, replacing them with someone more Catholic, and preferably with a taste for burning Protestants. The UK has never been short of unhappy entitled idiots who assume it's their duty to upset everyone else – NSS!  It's as true today as it ever was. 

Its Fawkes' visage everyone now identifies as the face a symbol of global protest. Climate Change protestors, Hong Kong Demonstrators and simple bank robbers wear the mask.  Terrorist or freedom fighter?

And…. Since we are talking about UK politics, let me refer everyone to a rather insightful note from last week.  William Dinning, CIO of Waverton, sees a large political risk discount applied to UK assets and sterling.  He's writen a rather incisive take on the election for markets and given me permission to share it all with you: UK Election: What to Look For in the Next Six Weeks.

The UK Opinion polls are going to be fascinating.. but after trying to watch Michael Gove and Kier Starmer on Brek Drek.. I've lost the will to even think about it. Actually.. I'm not sure if it was them I objected to, or the interviewer's technique?  Bottom line.. how does anyone win an election when everyone is already too bored to listen to Politicians?

Back in the Real World….

Most blogs reckon Trump is making noises about scaling back tariffs on China to deflect from the deepening Slough of Despond the impeachment case threatens to become.

Did he, didn't he? Well of course he did – but is it worth polariszng the US Electorate over it? If Trump wins, the US lurches further towards something further away from the founding fathers' dream.  If he is defeated at the ballot box – democracy is proved.  If he loses in the courts, democracy will find itself in the dock in Nov 2020.  Trump wins if the Democrats don't get their act together, coalesce around an electable leader and offer the electorate policies that appeal.

I wonder… Trump could not have planned it better – with one hand keep the Democrats angry and furious and focused on him, while the other bedazzles his part of the electorate with his trade statesmanship. (Pass me a bucket.)