Now, while some may debate whether a curve inversion begins the clock on an upcoming recession, one things is undisputable: while many analysts will caution that it is the Fed's rate hikes that ultimately catalyze the next recession and that every Fed tightening ends with a financial "event", the truth is that there is one step missing from this analysis, and it may come as a surprise to many that the last three recessions all took place with 3 months of the first rate cut after a hiking cycle!

In other words, if JPM and Barclays are right, the US economy will enter a recession some time around January 2020.

It is this historic inflection point that Wall Street and traders will be focusing on, because after what now appears set to be the longest economic expansion in history starting at midnight tonight, the recession now appears inevitable. Although don't assume for a minute that Wall Street won't fight tooth and nail to delay this admission.