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IPFS News Link • Stock Market

Strike Three: The Next Bear Market Ends The Game

• https://realinvestmentadvice.com, by Lance Roberts

Of course, the market had just experienced a 20% correction from the previous peak and the client was obviously concerned about his portfolio.

"Don't worry, there is always volatility in the market, but as you can see, even bear markets are mild and on average the market returns 8% a year over the long-term." 

Here is the chart which shows the PERCENTAGE return of each bull and bear market going back to 1900. (The chart is the S&P 500 Total Return Inflation-Adjusted index.)

Here is the narrative used with this chart.

"The average bear market lasts 1.4 years on average and falls 41% on average.-The average bull market (when the market is rising) lasts 9.1 years on average and rises 476% on average."

While the statement is not false, it is a false narrative.

"Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."– Mark Twain

Here are the basics of math.

If the index goes from 100 to 200 it is indeed a 100% gain.

If the index goes from 200 back to 100, it is only a 50% loss.

Mathematically it would seem as if an investor is still 50% ahead, however, the net return is actually ZERO.

This is the error of measuring returns in terms of percentages as it masks the real damage done to portfolios during a decline. To understand the real impact of bull and bear markets on a portfolio, it must be measured in POINTS rather than percentages.


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