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Colliding With the Economic Cycle – Again

• via the ECRI Institute

"But what I do know is that we will be prepared to adjust policy quickly and flexibly … should that be appropriate. … And particularly with the muted inflation readings that we've seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves." 

It's instructive to recall the evolution of the cyclical economic outlook in the lead-up to the Fed's year-long pause in 2016.

In July 2015, ECRI declared: "With economic growth set to stay in a cyclical downtrend, hopes for a 'second-half rebound' are likely to be dashed." We went on to say, "The Fed's rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle" because, "while the Fed clearly expects a pickup in growth, ECRI's leading indexes suggest the opposite."

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