Economists base that belief on soaring consumer confidence numbers and on wage earnings growth.

The curious thing is the Fed does not believe its own survey of spending growth projections.

Every month the New York Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations (inflation, spending, wage growth, income, home prices, jobs).

Consumers' Optimism about Their Overall Financial Situation Climbs to Series High

The April survey shows that while household income growth expectations increased and respondents' outlook for their households' overall financial situation reached a new series high, spending growth expectations dropped sharply—falling to their lowest level since the start of our survey in June 2013. Inflation expectations increased at both the one-year-ahead and three-year-ahead horizons, while inflation uncertainty declined.