There was a real, home-grown coup being plotted against Erdo?an. It probably combined Gülenist and Kemalist elements. While these two seem unlikely allies, coup alliances – especially ones planning to assassinate the leader – are animated more by what they are against than by what they are for. The plotters often cannot think past The Deed: Brutus and Cassius expected that with Caesar gone, the "republic" would re-appear; the killers of Sadat imagined that with "Pharaoh" gone, all would be well. But all they got was another Caesar and another "Pharaoh". Thus a temporary coming together of Gülenists and Kemalists to overthrow the "Sultan" is not impossible.

This coup had been in preparation for some time and Turkish security got wind of it ("received information" is the phrase being used) in time to warn Erdo?an to get out just ahead of the assassins. The story that Russian intelligence had picked up the clues and forewarned him is very believable. Russian signals intelligence has always been very good and Moscow would have been monitoring communications in Turkey because of the fighter plane shoot-down.