"The global economy is in no condition to take this medicine. My very safe prediction is that the Fed will either stall or back down."

As John Mauldin annotates, Neil doesn't stop there. He reminds us that the world geopolitical situation is deteriorating, particularly in the Middle East, and that the US presidential race is a complete crapshoot. At this point, the interviewer chirps in with "You sound a bit more downbeat than most." Well, says Neil,

If I'm coming in beneath the consensus forecast, it's because – over the last decade – reality has been coming in beneath the consensus forecast…