"The goog" that Paparo is referring to is, of course, Google.

Paparo was responding to a tweet from venture capitalist Hunter Walk, also an ex-Googler.

Walk wrote that for his firm, Homebrew, and the startups in its portfolio, there had been a "seasonal January increase in big company people looking to leave their jobs."

Walk said he thought exits from Google would not really pick up for "another month" — after bonuses are paid out there.

Then, presumably, Googler poaching season will be on.

(For startups, it's the hap-happiest season of all …)

It's important to remember that in the tech industry the migration of talent from big companies to startups is an ancient cycle, as regular and as expected as San Francisco's frigid temperatures in August.

That said …

During a trip to Palo Alto earlier this week, we spoke with another high-profile venture capitalist who said he also expected talent to flee Google in increased numbers during 2015 — but only if the company is unable to get its stock growing again.

Google's share price is down to $501 from $577 per share on this date a year ago. In Silicon Valley, where employees are often compensated as much or more in stock as they are in cash, a down stock price like that means Google is literally paying its people less money in 2015 than it did in 2014. That makes retention harder.