IPFS News Link • Economy - International
Simple Man's Macro View of the World
• http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com-Mike S.I purposely delayed posting it until now so more would see it than during a holiday-truncated week.
From Steen ...
Simple Man's View
One Trading View: Fixed income will outperform all assets. US 10-Year treasury yield will drop under 1.5% by 2015 Q3
One Economic View: Disinflation/deflation will be catalyst for asset sell-off
One Timing View: Q2/Q3-2015 low this cycle for all indicators
One Guaranteed View: Volatility will go up significantly
Core Trading Views
10Y Bond yields(US) will continue lower into Q2-2015. I see acceleration to down-side and mainly in the US where 10 Y could hit 2.00% and bottom out at 1.5% by Q2 as GDP comes off relative to "lift off" consensus.
European factors: Lower than anticipated growth in Germany (China rebalancing, lower US current account deficit and EZ overall) – Impact from Russia crisis only beginning to impact real economy and of course the deflation which ECB promised us would never happen.