Could both "facts" be true? Although half of all marriages end in divorce, the population which is currently married includes many marriages among people previously divorced. An individual who has married three, four, or five times skews the statistic for marriage failure rate significantly. If only one third of first marriages fail, and on average the partners in a failed first marriage go on to experience one additional divorce, the overall marriage failure rate would be 50%. The overall marriage failure rate is not predictive of the chance of success for a first marriage! It may be perfectly reasonable for couples beginning their first marriage to have an 85% or better expectation of lifelong marriage.